What the Democratic Party looks like down the pike depends a good deal on what happens this fall. Dean's 50 State Strategy did well in 06, but this fall is the real test. It needs to be understood as taking power and control of party finance away from the linked Lobby Shops, Consultant networks, and DC influentials, and decentralizing it into healthy state parties well on their way to doing what parties are supposed to do, namely win elections. If we are successful this fall, then there will be considerable support for the new decentralized model -- if we fail, the argument for the old forms will gain ascendency.

If the elections this fall are successful, we will immediately face the question -- to what extent should the DNC be an extension of the WH political operation, versus, to what extent should it emphasize continuning to build out the State Parties as a functioning power center. It is a given that a Democratic President selects the Party Chair and top DC operators -- To what extent can the value of party building be built into that set of selection considerations?

I doubt if there will be much sympathy in DC with ideas about taking out various office holders, such as the Edwards campaign against Wynn. Historically purges get little traction in DC, particularly when you have an administration in power. Even top down purges such as FDR attempted in 1938, or what the DLC attempted in the early 90's generally fail or backfire badly. The time to purge is when you are out of power, and sense your long time members, or next in line candidates aren't cutting it for you.

The primary way parties change is from the outside, when a new movement, or set of movements emerge sufficiently so as to force change. Labor did that to the Democrats in the 1930's, the Civil Rights Movement did it to Democrats in the late 60's and 70's, and in a limited way, the environmental movement did it in the 80's. Republicans underwent change in the 70's when the post-Goldwater Conservatives took over the Party. I really don't think there is any clear movement that currently is positioned to force such change, though one or two could emerge.

Should Obama be elected, it will be very interesting to watch what transpires.

Posted at August 27, 2008 2:06 AM in response to The Future of the Democratic Party

I was attending a series of meetings in SW Ohio in 1988 during October, and they ran that Willie Horton Ad during virtually every break in the late night movie -- One evening I counted four Horton ads in an hour, four views of the subway turnstile. (what else except watch the late night movie is there to do in a motel???)

I think the Swiftboaters and the children of the Atwater had the notion that repetition at 1AM was the way to seed the fear of hot and cold running Willie Horton's -- and I would be looking for a repeat of that pattern.

Posted at August 26, 2008 8:48 PM in response to Obama Ad Responding To Ayers Spot Now Running In Virginia, Too

Al is full time at the Fair, beginning today and for the next eleven days (and nights.)

This does connect to Minnesota. Minnesota people, men and women, are nuts about wetting a line in one of our lakes. Besides shoveling snow and listening to Garrison Keillor, Minnesotans go fishing. Moreover, a Senator should not fish anywhere else. And we don't catch and release, we put the critters on a stringer, clean them and have a fish fry. Real Minnesotans don't quit when it becomes winter -- they ice fish for two months in the winter. I can't remember Coleman ever coming back from DC for an Ice Fishing competition.

So yea, good ad, and it should appeal to the strata that Franken needs to reach.

Posted at August 22, 2008 6:35 PM in response to Al Franken Returns To Comedy In Goofy New Ad

Pawlenty also had a bridge fall down on him just a month after he vetoed a bill (a bi-partisian effort) to raise the gas tax a few pence so as to deal with the backlog of Bridge and Highway problems. Since then four additional Mississippi bridges have either been closed and are being demolished for replacement, or are in bad trouble with severe weight limits. Same bill passed over his veto this year, so now bridge replacements at least can be scheduled. Have fun making the TV ads on that one.

On the House Front -- someone needs to get scriptural about all this. "In my Father's House there are many Mansions" is not a commandment to go out and buy a zillion Mansions, and try to compete with Jesus's reference to his Father.

But the best thing to keep the House Meme alive while Obama himself moves on to weightier issues would be some good cartoons on YouTube. I think a take off from the classic Abbott and Costello piece "Whose on First" -- trying to decide among the houses, where to sleep tonight? might work very well -- done with KO's very cheap puppets.

Posted at August 22, 2008 12:41 PM in response to Election Central Morning Roundup

Let's not be too rash trying to push Joe out of the Democratic Senate set-up just yet -- unless you want to see Congress come back and have the Senate confirm all of Bush's super-neo-con Judges for instance -- something Reid can prevent so long as he holds the leadership. As things stand now, Reid isn't going to confirm any of them, leaving the way open for a hoped for Obama administration to nominate decent judges. Reid is not going to allow a recess so that Bush can do recess appointments. Push out Lieberman, and this is what you would get. Wait till next year and between 55 and 60 Democrats in the Senate, and Joe has no leverage.

Posted at August 13, 2008 10:31 PM in response to Pelosi: Senate Dems Won't Need Lieberman After The Election

"sara, this is standard operating procedure whenever a conservative gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar.....muddy the waters, offer alternative realities, scour Suskind's book for a flaw, however miniscule, then blow it out of proportion casting doubt on the whole book."

Yea, I realize this, which is why I am coming on so strong about actually reading Suskind before getting into the dubious weeds the critics push for their own ulterior reasons. Reading the book ought to be a "first criteria" for reviewing it or doing much commentary. Mike Barnicle on Hardball seems to be one of the few who almost finished reading before doing a good and serious interview at this juncture.

The reason the effort to palm the forgery off on to Feith and his shop doesn't work is because Habbush was under the joint control of British MI6 and CIA -- and Suskind has tapes from the people in both services who actually ran Habbush about these matters. (Including the former head of MI6, Dearlove, the reference "C" in the Downing Street memo whom Suskind interviewed in his digs at Cambridge.) The Brits had developed Habbush as a source, and had been running him for several years. His British control was a 30 year MI6 vet named Shipster, and again, Suskind has him as a source. And Rob Richer was his CIA case officer, the same guy the WH is currently trying to get to back-track on what he told Suskind on tape.

Who is Richer? Well he is the CIA Officer who has worked the Jordan Account for perhaps 25 years, who was very close to King Hussain, was asked to advise the King on Abdullah's education, and ultimately depended on by Hussain in his last month to determine who would inherit the throne. Richer and Abdullah have a "thing" together, they both like to participate in mass Harley Davidson rides. Suskind includes narrative of one around Carmel and on to Big Sur, but then references a more recent one across southern Africa. King Abdullah brought a number of Gulf Princes along on this "wild hog" ride. Since he retired in 2005 from CIA -- a victim of the Gosslings, Richer has become a principle in Blackwater's new Intelligence contracting operation. (the implications of such "outsourcing" boggle the mind.)

Anyhow, the forgery would make no sense without the voice and style of Habbush -- it portends to be, afterall, a short memo report from Habbush to Saddam, from the Iraqi Minister of Intelligence to the chief honcho. Our Master Feith over in the Pentagon does not play in the wild hog rides, and he probably never heard of Habbush, and certainly was not his case officer. Suskind's sources were all that and much more.

Posted at August 9, 2008 10:44 PM in response to Cheney's Forgery Operation

I strongly suggest that before anyone signs on to Philip Giraldi's claim that you read Ron Suskind's book. The whole book is built on interviews and research into documents that are indeed CIA and in addition, MI6 materials and personnel. People with 30 years CIA and MI6 experience who rose to the top of the heap in their services (and who indeed know how to fabricate things) do not mistake their employer or the people that were above and below them in the chain of command. And a reporter such as Suskind who has much experience reporting with such sources is highly unlikely to mistake Directorate of Operations CIA leadership for flacks who worked around Feith.

I have read the book, "The Way of the World" -- and I've outlined many of the stories and cross referenced (should say I am still cross referencing) to other reports and other timelines. I consider Giraldi's claim in the "Conservative" an effort to muddy up the story as Suskind tells it, an effort to distort with misinformation. But I also believe that Suskind has quite adequate back-up sources for every element of the story he tells.

The whole story is a straight on shot at Cheney, and in fact, it is not particularly complicated once you put the elements of it in context. If it could be gotten to a Grand Jury, Cheney would be indicted -- remember the precident from Agnew is that you can in fact indict a sitting VP without first impeaching, trying and convicting him in Congress. The charge would be violation of the Charter of the CIA, by using the agency for domestic political and propaganda purposes, conspiracy to do this, and perhaps much more. The problem right now is getting a prosecutor who would take it to a Grand Jury.

Anyhow if you have been keeping up with the books of late -- get this one and settle down for a good close read. Read Suskind's work before you jump on various hobby horses of those who either have not read it, or those who seek to muddy the water for you.

Posted at August 9, 2008 7:32 AM in response to Cheney's Forgery Operation

"water polo?!?!????!! ???

and you don't think that gymnastics viewers are a necessary demographic????"

Water Polo is a pretty normal lodge sport for kids and anyone else. Requires no special training or equiptment for all to just have fun. Apparently you have not been to all that many just family operated lodges in recent years. It is very common.

Gymnastics, everyone understands that the family has to quit their jobs, second mortgage their houses and all and move to a professonal gym so their 14 year old can hopefully support the family. How many have?

Posted at August 5, 2008 4:00 AM in response to Denver: A "Biography" Convention Would Be a Disaster

MJ, I am not too concerned with going into the Olympics break nearly even in the polls -- in recent weeks I've had the sense Obama was peaking a bit early, and the need to push it up and not coast was a necessary correction. Apparently he is going to take a few days off during the Olympics, and then come back -- and that just might break the cycle of tit for tat on what is or isn't racism.

I am less concerned with a Biography than I am with whether he is willing to deliver a totally uncooked red meat speech at the convention, taking the hide off the VALUES of the Bush Cheney years, and the strings that tie McCain into all of it. Just re-read some of FDR's 1936 speeches where he called out the "Economic Royalists" for what they were, noted that they hated him, and stood his ground by saying he welcomed their hate. Obama can't give that speech exactly, but he can fashion his own version. Somehow he has to bridge aspirational with the red meat approach that appeals to those who look on Presidential Elections essentially as Pork Chops.

The Olympics are two weeks -- week one, the more artistic sports such as gymnastics. Week Two we get to tradition and track and field stuff. Obama needs to pound back when we are into 15 thousand meters and relays and then the final marathon -- and not during the boutique stuff.

I hope his staff has a nice vacation planned for him -- not windsurfing on the Cape, but a nice fishing camp someplace, decent lodge, decent food, a guide who takes the whole family out for decent fishing, swimming, perhaps some play at water polo -- a horse back ride, and an under the stars barbarque. Then in the last days of the Olympics he ought to go back out on the trail. What we want is build up to Denver and a nice reasonable bump -- and small scale campaigning during the Republican Convention.

It looks now like Ron Paul and Jesse Ventura have sold more tickets for their event in the Target Center in Minneapolis (which is larger) than the Republicans will have in the Hockey Arena in St. Paul. What's that about????

Posted at August 5, 2008 1:32 AM in response to Denver: A "Biography" Convention Would Be a Disaster

Tiz about time that MSM begin to dig back into what became known as the Keating Five -- and what that was really all about.

Charles Keating was the President of several Savings and Loans in the SW -- California, Arizona, etc -- perhaps Texas, that went on a merger mania in the first wave of deregulation. Eventually his S&L business "plan" began to go south, so he sought the assistance of Five Senators to protect him from the Regulators, and to sponser additional deregulation. These Five got caught taking big time campaign contributions for these requested favors. McCain was one of the Five.

The S&L crisis cost taxpayers Billions, and many small savers lost life savings in the mess. And in fact the crisis killed many of these small institutions that since the great depression had been the backbone of how employed working and middle class Americans bought the family house. They dealt primarily in "small passbook savings accounts" and Government Insured FHA and GI mortgates. What deregulation amounted to was allowing S&L's to get into loans to much more risky clients (shopping centers, golf courses, tennis clubs, oil drilling, even financing movies,) investments they had no skill managing, no ability to assess as to risk, but operate under the Government Insurance Guarentee -- which end up sticking the Treasury with the bill when these S&L's collapsed.

The current sub-prime crisis with all its complications is the second wave of all this.

And John McCain was one of the Senators (and it was bi-partisian) willing to sell his position on Regulation of the S&L's as the backbone financing for American's middle income housing for a campaign contribution.

But as a potential President, it is a little less important that he once "sold his vote" -- a little more important that he be asked about who got stung with his "deregulatory" efforts. It was the small savers, the small family home buyers, and ultimately the Taxpayers who had to clean up the mess.

Posted at July 26, 2008 7:14 PM in response to "We have a monumental double standard here"